The Fulcrum

Friday, November 05, 2004

M.O.U.T. 

Military Operations on Urban Terrain.

I'm not sure if that's still the name in current doctrine, but that's what fighting in a city was called when I was in the Army (1983 - 1993).

It seems that our military, nominally assisted by Iraqi security forces, is prepared to move into Fallujah within hours or days. There were several bombing sorties by American aircraft overnight and US Marines have stated that the "battle space" is being prepared. In other words, it won't be long.

Whether or not the name has changed, I can tell you what hasn't changed; fighting in a city is dangerous, bloody work. The fighting takes more soldiers that are required to fight on a similarly sized piece of open terrain and many more soldiers than it takes to hold open terrain after the battle.

The defenders always have the advantage, regardless of the disparity in technology. They know the terrain, they know the buildings, they've had time to knock out walls between buildings to provide movement and escape routes. They have the advantage of height, observing and fighting from the tops of buildings. They know and likely have the cooperation of the local population. In more open terrain, an attacker, doctrinally, requires a 3:1 advantage. In a city, especially an older, non-rectilinear one like Fallujah, the required advantage can climb to 5 or 10:1.

Although our soldiers will go into this fight with a huge technological advantage, unless the putative Iraqi government and BushCo. are willing to literally level the city, there is no doubt that this fight will devolve into house-to-house fighting. To do this, each building has to be isolated from the ones around it, and then soldiers fight their way into the building - usually on a floor other than the bottom - and then clear each floor, up and down. Once it's been cleared, a detail has to stay behind to make sure it's not reoccupied.

You can see how the numbers of troops required to do this can climb very quickly depending on how tenacious the defenders are. Throw in their limitless supply of high-grade explosives, looted from al QaQaa, plenty of RPGs and lots of fighters willing to blow themselves up or fight to the death, along with American 250 and 500 lb laser-guided bombs, Hellfire missiles and 2.75 inch aerial rockets and you've got a scene that would have made Dante blanche.

It's no wonder Bush wanted this to wait until after the election.


Can We Afford to Fight This Fight? 

Can we afford not to?

It's been asked elsewhere, but why is it always the Democrats that have to give up things for the good of the country? John Kerry, after promising that every vote would be counted, conceded the election long before the final votes were counted. In fact they still have not been counted. But he did so for the good of the country - so that we would not have to go through 2000 all over again.

I'm not sure what to make of Greg Palast's claims at TomPaine.com. But here's his opening paragraph... except two words:

I know you don't want to hear it. You can't face one more hung chad. But I don't have a choice. As a journalist examining that messy sausage called American democracy, it's my job to tell you who got the most votes in the deciding states. Tuesday, in Ohio and New Mexico, it was ...
You know what he's going to say; Palast was the one who laid out all the evidence for the theft of the 2000 election. Is it true? I think it's too early to say. Do we really want to do this again?

Can we really afford not to?

Post Script: I suppose that the real question is whether or not anyone in the mainstream American media will pick this up and run it to ground. Will anyone in the White House press pool be willing to give up their precious access (what the hell that access is getting them in the way of information is beyond me anyway) to dig for the facts? I think we all know the answer to that question. And even if one of them were to have the gonads to take on this story, which corporate-owned media conglomerate network would agree to publish their findings and endanger all the goodies flowing from this administration?


I'm Only Here for the Free Beer 

Actually it's for the free blog...

This is the first time all day that Blogger has let me into my own blog. If it weren't free I'd ask for my money back. Of course I've been too busy to do much blogging today anyway.

In an effort to lighten up the mood here at The Fulcrum and to move from the dark despair of Tuesday/Wednesday to the energized state we're all going to need to fight the next four years I'm posting the picture below. I've seen it a couple of places today and I pinched this copy from AMERICABlog. It gave me a good laugh and I hope it makes you laugh, too. And I hope it motivates you for the long fight ahead.

Behind the easy comedy, there's way too much truth in this:



Thursday, November 04, 2004

Doctors Without Borders Leaves Iraq 

The Iraq quagmire just got a little deeper. With coalition members continuing to leave, the departure of Medecins Sans Frontieres leaves yet more work for our overtaxed military and civilian workers.

"It has become impossible for MSF as an organization to guarantee an acceptable level of security for our staff, be they foreign or Iraqi," said Gorik Ooms, general director of the organization in Belgium.
MSF had done over 100,000 medical consultations since this January. Who will see these Iraqi patients now? Our military medics? With the battle of Fallujah likely already started, they're going to be too busy. Iraqi doctors? If they were able to do that, it wouldn't have been necessary for MSF to have been there in the first place. So they won't get done at all.

BushCo.: winning the hearts and minds of Iraqis every day.


Elizabeth Edwards Diagnosed with Breast Cancer 

Very sad news for the Edwards family although it appears they have caught it relatively early.

My thoughts go out to this wonderful family...


Mandate? 

A bare 51% is not a mandate. But Republicans are already claiming they have a broad national mandate. The Empty Flight Suit made an appeal to Kerry supporters, but if you read between the lines and if you read history (recent history, that is), you'll know that was not an appeal to meet him in the middle. No, the appeal was "you come way over here or you can go home." There will be no "reaches across the aisle" in the next four years. Just as there was none during the past four.

Mandate, my ass. As I said in comments on someone's blog this morning: "you can take your f***in' mandate and go Cheney yourself with it."

For a slightly less emotional take on what Bush means by his appeal, go read Maureen Dowd.

W. doesn't see division as a danger. He sees it as a wingman.

The president got re-elected by dividing the country along fault lines of fear, intolerance, ignorance and religious rule. He doesn't want to heal rifts; he wants to bring any riffraff who disagree to heel.
Hey, I did say it was slightly less emotional...


Well... That Didn't Take Long 

Yesterday I wrote that Bush's slim margin of victory would be taken as an affirmation of all that he's done in the past four years; that he would take the country being evenly split as a mandate. Today's Wall Street Journal (subscription) provides evidence of just that:

Big business is counting its blessings -- and anticipating more -- in the wake of President Bush's re-election.

The Bush administration had already proved itself to business in its first term when it enacted three rounds of tax cuts, eased environmental regulation, filled cabinet agencies with business-friendly appointments, and backed legislation to boost domestic energy production. Now, many companies and industries expect specific gains from new federal policies and programs, and the Republican Party's stronger hand in Congress will mean that those legislative proposals will face relatively fewer hurdles.

[snip]

In the next four years, drug makers, health-care companies and financial-service concerns expect to benefit from Bush efforts to rein in legal costs and extend dividend and capital-gains tax cuts. Wall Street companies are looking for a flood of new investment if Mr. Bush succeeds in opening the Social Security system to privately owned accounts. Fast-food chains are less worried about a higher minimum wage and auto makers about tighter fuel-economy standards -- both areas where a Kerry administration planned to make changes.

Many industries invested heavily in the Bush campaign as much to avert a victory by Sen. John Kerry as to help ensure four more years for Mr. Bush. Health-care and drug companies contributed $26 million to Mr. Bush and the Republican Party, knowing the Massachusetts Democrat planned to have the federal government bargain directly with drug makers on Medicare prices and allow drug imports from Canada.

While Congressional Democrats will probably continue their push for such measures, Mr. Bush's victory, along with Republican gains in the House and Senate, greatly diminish the Democrats' chances.
You can see where the welfare of the people falls in such an agenda, right?

UPDATE: An iteresting tidbit from the above article also provides a hint about what another four more years of the empty flight suit will bring:

"This was a meaningful mandate, and we can expect aggressive action on the Bush agenda," said Tom Gallagher, a Washington policy analyst for ISI Group, a New York investment firm. Mr. Gallagher's company put together a "Bush index" of stocks and industries that would be expected to do well in a second term; they include health care, insurance, defense, energy and utilities.

... Mr. Gallagher reasons that Mr. Bush's combative foreign policy would lead to "increasing short-term geopolitical risk ... causing some investors to seek protection" in gold.


House Cleaning 

Last night, after getting home from work, my wife said, "no TV tonight." I had to agree with her that I just didn't want to see any of it. And so we sat in the den and looked for Christmas cookie recipes and listened to music from my iTunes library. There were a few times I was tempted to check my blog or to check the news but I resisted. The closest we got to any sort of news was to check the weather before we went to bed.

It was a good strategery.

This morning, while still disgusted by the results of Tuesday/Wednesday and still fearing for our future, the emotions are not so raw and they are slowly turning from an energy drain to a motivation for the long road ahead.

So this morning, in between getting back into the swing of things at work, I've decided to do a little house cleaning at The Fulcrum. You'll notice a few new things over in the "Politics" section on the right and there will likely be a few things that disappear and appear over the course of the next couple of days. Who knows, I might just harness all that emotion and energy to do a complete redesign. Maybe.

I suppose that was the long way of saying that despite the outcome of the election, The Fulcrum will not go away. I doubt that I'll keep up the pace of posting that I have over the last couple of months - but you never know. With this administration thinking they have a referendum for every right-wing bit of wing-nuttery in their arsenal, I doubt it will take them long to do something to get me fired up again.

Thank you to everyone who stopped by since I began this effort. Your comments and your "hits" are what keep me going. There's a lot of work left to be done between now and November 4, 2008.


Wednesday, November 03, 2004

Picking Up Where He Left Off 

Hungary to Withdraw Troops From Iraq
Defense Minister Says Country Waited for U.S. Elections Results Before Deciding
The Coalition of the Willing seems to be still unraveling. Thousands of our troops in Iraq recently had their tours of duty involuntarily extended, some for the second time and our "coalition" is dissolving before our eyes. As our military is stretched further and further and as BushCo.'s hubris is fed by the latest election results, how will we meet the continuing troop needs of the "Never-ending War on Terror?"

We can't say when we might leave Iraq because the Preznit says that would tell the terrorists that they only need to wait one more day that we will. We can't say when the war will be won because the policies and the actions of this administration - if the last four years was any indication - will continue to serve as recruitment for terrorism. And we can't say for sure which country will be next on Bush's hit list.

What we can say - but Bush insists that we don't is this: DRAFT.


You Break It, You Own It 

My Pet Goat

Remember this picture during the next crisis. With his "mandate," you just know there's going to be a next one.


Kerry Concedes 

CNN and all the others are breaking in with the news that Kerry is conceding.

If you are a true patriot, one who believes in the gift of democracy handed to us by our forbears, one who believes in the inalienable rights guaranteed by our constitution, one who believes that America is a vital part of the community of nations, then it is time to grieve for our country.


Fear and Loathing 

I've done things that would make your hair stand up on-end. I'm an adrenaline junky and most things that you'd consider risky I revel in. As long as I understand the risks and know all the things I can do to reduce that risk. You've heard some of these things from me before; I've flown helicopters (in the trees, at night with night-vision goggles), I've been shot at in war, I've flown small airplanes, I've flown hang-gliders. I've bungee jumped, rock climbed and rappeled down cliffs and out of helicopters at night.

These things don't scare me because I fully understand the activities and the risks that go with them.

Today, though, I'm scared.

It's a feeling I'm not used to - and not one that I enjoy in the least.

I'm afraid because of the things I know about BushCo. They've given us plenty to be scared of in their first four years. I'm even more afraid of the things we don't know. What do they have planned for a second term if Ohio falls into the red column? What other wars will they start? Will my 17 year old daughter (or my two neices) fall prey to a draft? What other restraints will they remove from their corporate backers; economic, environmental, legal? What other rights will they infringe upon?

Today, more than ever, the title of my blog describes the country. We are poised on a point - a fulcrum - centered in Ohio, and the smallest touch could send us tottering in one of two directions. On one side is hope for a better future. On the other is fear and a never-ending "war on terror." I don't understand what happened to get us here and I don't understand what can be done to keep us from falling to the side of fear. I don't know how to reduce the dangers of that path forward.

And so I'm afraid.


What Have We Done? 

If, as appears likely, Ohio goes to Bush, here is what Republican America has effectively said to the rest of the country and the world:

  • We don't care that our children - and yours - will continue to die in wars of our aggression.

  • We don't care that the richest Americans will soon own everything.

  • We don't care that corporations have assumed control over much of the country.

  • We don't care that the neediest among us will starve, live on the street, or have no access to medical care (unless you profess faith to "our" god - maybe).

  • We don't care that our children and yours will live in a filthy, polluted world.

  • We don't care that women all over the world, especially here at home, have no choice in their reproductive life.

  • We don't care what that half of the country that didn't vote for us thinks, says or wants.

  • We don't care that segments of our population are discriminated against because of who they are.

  • We don't care what the world thinks of our actions even though they affect you directly or indirectly.
Essentially, those who've voted to keep the lying disaster of an empty flight suit in the White House have given everyone in the country and on the planet who don't subscribe to their limited, pinched view of the world the finger. Those who voted Republican may have given them free reign, without constraint of reelection concerns, to continue with the worst of the far right's agenda.


Tuesday, November 02, 2004

WTF is Up With Florida? 

When even Tucker Carlson says Florida is FUBAR for not being able to count absentee ballots until Thursday, then you know things are bad. Hell must have frozen over with Begala and Carlson agreeing about this.

Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida - the whole country hangs in the balance on those three states. The tension is unbearable.


Zogby's Latest 

Kerry: 311
Bush: 213

Still very early, but these are promising...

It will be very interesting to hear the post-mortems on the polls this cycle. So many of the pollsters are being very conservative with their predictions.


First Projections 

No surprises - yet.

Vermont to Kerry.

Georgia, Kentucky and Indiana to Bush.

I can hardly sit still to write this post... damn I wish this were done.

Can't CNN find someone other than Wolf for their election coverage? Anyone stopping by, let me know who you're watching.


Waiting... 

I keep making the rounds of the news sites and blogs in between trying to get some work done. There are scattered reports of minor voting problems and lots of reports of long lines and record turnouts. But of course it's too early for there to be any real news about how things are going.

For those of you who stop by and have already voted let me know in the comments how your voting experience went today.

For those of you who haven't voted yet, let me be the last to say, "go vote!"


Wall Street Journal Overreaches - Again 

How's this for a desperate, last minute spin of Bush's record?

Bush is a divisive wartime figure. So were Lincoln, Churchill and Roosevelt.
The empty flight suit should not even be mentioned in the same breath as those three, heroic men. And yet the WSJ editors - and most on the far right - think that just by saying it they make it so. The rest of the editorial is just as surreal.

Call it delusional reism.


Message in a Bottle 

By 7:05 this morning I was in the voting booth and in a matter of just a few moments - after carefully checking to be sure my selections were correct - my votes were cast. It occurred to me as I sat to write this post, that casting a single vote is much like casting a message in a bottle into the sea. You can never be sure upon which shore either the message or the vote will wash up.

Ocean currents and the final spin of an election cycle can conspire to cast either one upon a friendly or hostile shore and it's only later that you can be sure that your message was received at all.

But just as you cannot control the great gyres of ocean tides and currents, no single person can control the destiny of our country at the polls. Acting together, though we can, as a community, move the US back towards the brotherhood of nations. Unlike the message in a bottle, which could float on the ocean without ever coming ashore, each vote - if there is any justice - is counted and tallied and comes to rest on the rolls.

Tomorrow, we'll all know upon which shore our votes have grounded.


Today is the First Day of the Rest of History 

And you can have a part in shaping how that history will be played out.

Last night in Cleveland, John Kerry gave us a final push to get out the vote and a final look at a future of hope versus the future of fear that Bush has been pushing. Kerry looked tired - as he should, it's been a long campaign season - but he finished strong. It seemed we got a glimpse at our next president; confident, brave and a proud member of the reality based community.

So play your part to make this a better country. Get to the polls today and vote. And, to borrow a phrase from Teresa, vote often; that is, get others to the polls who might not otherwise go.

Vote for hope.

Vote for Kerry-Edwards.


Monday, November 01, 2004

And So It Begins 

The crap has already started in Florida. Police in riot gear, five-hour early voting lines, Republicans trying to cut off the end of long lines...

Makes me proud to be a native Floridian.

Damn.

UPDATE: More from the Washington Post.


American Parochialism 

I have friends and family in Canada who are following our election very closely; I even know someone who's taken tomorrow off to watch all the coverage he can get on CBC and the American networks. When my wife told a couple of workmates this the almost immediate reply was, "why do they care?"

If you're reading my blog, you probably already realize that what happens here affects people all over the world. But you'd be surprised - or maybe you wouldn't - at the number of people who have no clue.

Bush has not "just" been a disaster for the United States: asleep at the wheel before 9/11, more interested in "pet goats" than attacks on the World Trade Center, building the largest deficit in history from the biggest surplus in history, starting the first preemptive war in our history... But he's been an unmitigated disaster for our country's standing in the world, our recession has affected economies and standards of living around the world, traditional allies are no longer sure that we are the beacon of hope and democracy that we've been for generations.

But so many Americans are so parochial in their outlook, never bothering to wonder at their impact on the rest of the world. It's why so many of them could care less about the environment, it's why universal health care is considered profane, why our mass transit systems are the laughing stock of the world, it's why the UN has such a low standing with so many Americans. We are a country that's become incapable of seeing beyond our own shores, beyond what is good for us now.

It's a sad indictment on the state of the electorate. Perhaps - and I say this with great sadness and a sincere hope that it is not true - perhaps it's time for the US to begin its long, slow slide into theocracy and oblivion, joining other failed experiments in government in the dustbin of history...

I think that tomorrow's outcome will be an indication of whether we can rouse ourselves from this inward stupor or if we have, indeed, begun the long decline.


Jeb's Minions Violating First Amendment Rights 

A reporter/photographer was chased down, tackled, punched and arrested for violating a law that had not been made public. It sounds like something right out of the former Soviet Union. But no, it happened today, in Florida.

A sheriff's deputy tackled, punched and arrested a US journalist for taking pictures of people waiting in line to cast early ballots in West Palm Beach, local media reported.

A sheriff's spokesman said later the deputy was enforcing a new county rule prohibiting reporters from interviewing or photographing voters lined up outside the polls, the Palm Beach Post said.

[snip]

Palm Beach Supervisor of Elections Teresa LePore did not comment on the incident or the new rule, which had not been previously announced. LePore gained notoriety as the creator of the infamous butterfly ballot that confused thousands of voters in the chaotic and controversial 2000 election.
Thanks to AMERICABlog.


Watching the Poll Watchers 

First, a federal judge says that Republican poll thugs must stay away from the polls in Ohio, then Michael Moore plans to have hundreds of amateur film crews to watch the actions of poll watchers in Florida and Ohio. Maybe things won't be as ugly as we've all been expecting...

Thanks to Hesiod and Atrios for the heads-up.


Younger Voters Will Decide This Race 

I'll just re-post AMERICABlog's entire post on this subject:

As you saw in my previous post, AP said:

Voter turnout is likely to be higher than in recent presidential elections - especially among young voters - in a very close race, weekend polls suggest.
Couple that with what Zogby said this morning:

The real news here is that 18-29 year olds favor Kerry 64% to 35%, with 1% for Nader -- and 0% undecided. When I see a low undecided number it means that group is going to vote. I am factoring this group to be 12% of the total vote -- but it could be higher. Each point it goes higher translates into two-thirds of a percent for Kerry -- if these numbers hold up.
The higher the voter turnout among young voters, then the more likely it will be for Kerry to win.
VOTE! There has never been a more important time for you to vote - no matter your age. But you first time and younger voters have the power to change our country for the better.

VOTE!


One Final Day 

It all comes down to a last day. All around the political blogosphere, whether on the right or the left, bloggers will make their final appeals, will write their final words on this election season today.

For sure there will be post-election discussions and dissections. The details will be pored over for weeks - or months if it's really close as all polls seem to suggest it will be. But today is the final day to try to persuade; to persuade the last undecideds out there to vote for Kerry/Edwards, to persuade teetering Republicans, to persuade those who might not vote to get out and pull the levers of power that our Constitution places within our hands.

I urge everyone who stops in today to make sure that you are as informed as you can be as you walk into the voting booth tomorrow. Truly informed; not just from a single source but as broadly and as deeply as you can be. Remember to think ahead; Americans are notoriously short-sighted. What will your children or grandchildren think of the choice that you make for them tomorrow? Most people can leave no legacy in the sense that the very rich or the very powerful can; but as a group the vast majority of us leave a legacy more important than the largest endowment. We leave a government - executive, Congress and the courts - that will have a profound impact on those who come after us.

Think before you vote.

But vote.


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